Survey facts & stats

Question 1

In what year is the first known opinion poll believed to have been conducted, via U.S. newspaper straw polls?

Accepted Answer

1824. Newspapers tallied informal voter preferences ahead of a presidential election, long before scientific polling existed.

Question 2

In the famous 1936 U.S. election poll fiasco, whose smaller, scientifically sampled poll beat the Literary Digest's 2-million-response survey?

Accepted Answer

George Gallup. The Literary Digest's huge sample was badly biased toward wealthier households, while Gallup's smaller, careful sample got it right.

Question 3

For a poll of about 1,000 people, what is the typical margin of error?

Accepted Answer

about plus/minus 3%. A 1,000-person sample is the common sweet spot pollsters use to keep the margin of error reasonably small.

Question 4

About how many people would a poll need to survey to shrink its margin of error to about plus/minus 1%?

Accepted Answer

about 10,000 people. Cutting the margin of error further takes a much bigger sample, which is why most polls settle for around 3%.

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